Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.
31
1kṀ55539999
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to wikipedia today "The future of Earth", the Sun will likely engulf Earth in about 7.59 billion years. Let's add about 50% margin of error, wait until that time and resolve the question accordingly.
This is mostly an experiment arround very long term market. This may show if a price can have a meaning (like reflecting scientific consensus) even if it's likely nobody from now will be around to see the outcome.
Close date updated to 9999-12-09 12:59 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Sun be eaten by 2030?
1% chance
Will the Sun be eaten by 2040?
5% chance
Will any human fall into the Sun before 2060?
11% chance
Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?
7% chance
Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?
4% chance
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040?
2% chance
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?
18% chance
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
47% chance
Will someone actually “dim the sun” by 2035?
19% chance
Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?
10% chance