This is the lowercase-d market; see https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will-6f0c6ffad82 for capital-D.

This resolves YES if the number of deaths primarily attributable to the crashing plane in https://glowfic.com/posts/6340 is >= 10.

Fine print:

• The deaths still count even if the people are successfully cryopreserved and/or are later resurrected (e.g. by Golarion magic or by successful cryo reversal).

• People who die within an in-world month (e.g. in a hospital after medevac) still count as long as it seems like it's of crash-related injuries.

• If the story is abandoned or ends before the plane crashes, this resolves N/A.

• If the story is abandoned or ends after the plane crashes, any people who are not dead count as not dead even if they are in critical condition.

• The market close date is an estimate and will be pushed back as necessary if I think the outcome is still in doubt.

• If the number of deaths is not sufficiently clear, I will ask for a Word-of-God from the authors.

• Since this may end up a subjective call in spite of these clarifications, I will not bet in this market.