This is the lowercase-d market; see https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will-6f0c6ffad82 for capital-D.
This resolves YES if the number of deaths primarily attributable to the crashing plane in https://glowfic.com/posts/6340 is >= 10.
Fine print:
The deaths still count even if the people are successfully cryopreserved and/or are later resurrected (e.g. by Golarion magic or by successful cryo reversal).
People who die within an in-world month (e.g. in a hospital after medevac) still count as long as it seems like it's of crash-related injuries.
If the story is abandoned or ends before the plane crashes, this resolves N/A.
If the story is abandoned or ends after the plane crashes, any people who are not dead count as not dead even if they are in critical condition.
The market close date is an estimate and will be pushed back as necessary if I think the outcome is still in doubt.
If the number of deaths is not sufficiently clear, I will ask for a Word-of-God from the authors.
Since this may end up a subjective call in spite of these clarifications, I will not bet in this market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ240 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ6 |
Ah crap, I see that I did not define "abandoned" in this market. But "on hiatus" seems like it's usually glowfic-speak for "abandoned", plus in another market (https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-the-to-face-the-death-glowfic-th) I defined abandoned as "2 months during which the authors neither add to it nor declare that they intend to do so within another month", which seems to have happened here.
So I think I should resolve this as NO now in accordance with the fine print; does anyone think I would be wrong to do so?
Pinging @CatIsFluffy in particular for comment, as the unlucky majority YES stakeholder.
