Scott runs an annual book review contest (2022 rules; 2022 results). People occasionally think that one of the anonymous reviews is by Scott himself, though so far none has been revealed to be so. I am curious what the results would be if he did participate, and I also hope that this market makes it more likely that he'll participate (@ScottAlexander: do you really want to make all these market participants sad by forcing me to resolve N/A?). So:
If Scott reveals that he will not / did not enter his 2023 contest, or if he neither confirms nor denies his participation within one month after final rankings are announced, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, this resolves YES if Scott gets 3rd place or above (including tied-for-3rd), and NO otherwise.
Fine print: I will not bet in this market. In the last week of December, if this market has at least 5 participants, I will email Scott to make sure he's seen it [EDIT: done on Dec 28; we had 8 traders]. A non-exhaustive list of edge cases:
- If Scott asks me to resolve N/A (e.g. because he dislikes the pressure), this resolves N/A
- If Scott submits multiple entries, this resolves YES if any one of them would individually resolve YES
- If Scott confirms he participated but after one month of posting rankings does not reveal which review is his, this resolves NO (i.e. I will assume that any anonymous/pseudonymous members of the top 3 are not Scott)
- The close date is an estimate based on this year's contest timeline, but I will push it back if the market cannot be resolved yet
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ78 | |
| 2 | Ṁ43 | |
| 3 | Ṁ37 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
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@BenjaminCosman I know I'm not among those being asked, but I'll point out that the ambiguity suggested by the title does not appear to be in the resolution criteria given:
this resolves YES if Scott gets 3rd place or above (including tied-for-3rd), and NO otherwise.
Looks more clearly "placed better than 3rd" than "performed better than 3rd".
@BenjaminCosman haha, I don't envy you. To be perfectly honest, I "feel like" I got this one wrong. I thought he wouldn't win because I thought his book review wouldn't be the most popular, not because I anticipated a technicality. I'm fine with a YES resolution. (but then my NO stake is tiny so it's easy for me to say.)
Ok, I've decided on a YES resolution.
The spirit of the question points to YES. I believe that most and possibly all traders (on both sides) were betting based on how well they thought Scott's work would be received, rather than the technicality of whether his name would appear next to the words "1st place".
If Scott had written "1st place (but disqualified from getting a prize): Njal's Saga by Scott Alexander", the resolution would unambiguously be YES. It seems wrong to flip the resolution to NO just based on the fact that he chose to present that same state of affairs using slightly different words (i.e. most votes but disqualified from getting 1st place, rather than 1st place but disqualified from getting a prize).
I recognize that Scott was not "announced as" 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place. But I think there's enough ambiguity here in terms of what it really means to "get 3rd place or above"/"be announced as 3rd place or better", e.g. even arguing pure technicalities, having more votes than 1st can be construed as "1st or better". Also I note that my list of edge cases is "non-exhaustive", and this is pretty clearly some kind of edge case.
While I take full responsibility for this market and its resolution, I will note that all three people I conferred with offsite (including one NO holder) support a YES resolution.
I am sorry that I did not think of this scenario in advance, and I recognize that this resolution will not make everyone happy. I will try to make the criteria more comprehensive in the future.
I was a no voter, lost mana on the market, but am fine with a yes resolution.
I’m also @BenjaminCosman ’s brother but I think I would accept his logic even if I didn’t know him.
If anyone wants to have some fun betting on how someone else will resolve this issue, this similar market is still open for trading:
https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-scott-win-the-book-review-cont
Made a more general market about which review will win. What will be the first letter of the Book Review to win the ACX Book Review Contest? maybe interesting for some
The 2023 book review contest has begun! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-274
Here's someone else's market on whether Scott is participating: https://manifold.markets/warty/did-scott-alexander-enter-his-own-b
Just want to make sure folks have seen the related market at https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/if-scott-alexander-enters-the-2023-0b6f649df541 - we have 8 traders here but only 3 there.