If Scott Alexander enters the 2023 ACX Book Review Contest, he will be announced as 3rd place or better.
35
740Ṁ5970
resolved Sep 16
Resolved
YES

Scott runs an annual book review contest (2022 rules; 2022 results). People occasionally think that one of the anonymous reviews is by Scott himself, though so far none has been revealed to be so. I am curious what the results would be if he did participate, and I also hope that this market makes it more likely that he'll participate (@ScottAlexander: do you really want to make all these market participants sad by forcing me to resolve N/A?). So:

If Scott reveals that he will not / did not enter his 2023 contest, or if he neither confirms nor denies his participation within one month after final rankings are announced, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, this resolves YES if Scott gets 3rd place or above (including tied-for-3rd), and NO otherwise.

Fine print: I will not bet in this market. In the last week of December, if this market has at least 5 participants, I will email Scott to make sure he's seen it [EDIT: done on Dec 28; we had 8 traders]. A non-exhaustive list of edge cases:

- If Scott asks me to resolve N/A (e.g. because he dislikes the pressure), this resolves N/A

- If Scott submits multiple entries, this resolves YES if any one of them would individually resolve YES

- If Scott confirms he participated but after one month of posting rankings does not reveal which review is his, this resolves NO (i.e. I will assume that any anonymous/pseudonymous members of the top 3 are not Scott)

- The close date is an estimate based on this year's contest timeline, but I will push it back if the market cannot be resolved yet

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