How come when I added a category it instantly jumped to the top?

@DavidSpies when you add an option, it initiates at 50%

@DavidSpies this is an UNLINKED binary market. Each of the options is independent. They do not sum to 100%. If you read the criteria carefully, it's actually possible for multiple to resolve YES.

@bens Lol I see you were gracious enough to correct it

If you add up all the probabilities, that's about 2.7 expected categories (which seems a bit overmuch, I would have expected it to be closer to 1)

@duck_master Is there an arbitrage opportunity where you just bet against everything?

@DavidSpies no, because new categories could always be added

@bens Doesn't that just help? It makes your existing no-bets even more likely to all be correct.

@DavidSpies well then that wouldn't be arbitraging, would it? that would just be betting NO on everything (which I've been doing)

@bens I think it's arbitraging because if one of the categories you bet against wins, you still compensate by winning mana on all the others. If none of them do, then you win even more mana

@TonyGao the rules literally say that books aren't allowed, so I think even if someone does try to smuggle in a book review per se Scott will probably catch it (and if he doesn't, his readers probably will)

@duck_master Yeah, I didn't read the question properly before adding it. But I think there's a good chance it might resolve to a nonzero percentage.

@ArtimisFowl in the case of a tie for winner (two reviews tie for 1st, say), then each of their categories will resolve YES? Or will resolve to 50% each?

In the case of 1 winner being at the border between two categories, will both also resolve YES? Or to 50% each?

@bens In case 1: I would resolve both to yes at 100% each (note that each category resolves independently. I put pretty low odds on a tie, as Scott seems to avoid that aggressively, so I don't think this changes too much.)

In case 2: both would resolve yes at 100% each. In particular, you're welcome to make categories of more or less specificity, and all that apply to the winning review will resolve as yes. (For example, a review of a painting would qualify as 'art' and 'painting'.)

@ArtimisFowl for which of the two scenarios?

@bens apologies; edited above.

Wishcasting ftw :)

If someone eg contrasts the Dune video game with the Dune board game and the Dune movie, would all resolve to 100 or would it be some other way?

@Mad You have it right - all would resolve to 100. I will attempt to judge each category separately, and using the broadest applicable definition. In particular, nested and orthogonal categories are welcome. (as an example, 'something dune related' and 'board game' would both resolve to 100 for a review of the dune board game, or even the review which contrasts it against the movie and video game.)

Does Cinema include documentaries?

@ahalekelly I would say yes. If you wanted to make a more precise category of 'Documentary', and a review of a documentary won, I would resolve both 'Cinema' and 'Documentary' as correct.

Does Blog Post include a blog in its entirety?

@AdamBraff same with Song, Painting, etc. I think those won’t have enough content to discuss so reviewing an artist’s full body of work is more likely. Given that the creator said answers should be interpreted broadly I think these should all count

@ahalekelly Yes, that is my intention.