Since the roster may change, I will add an option each friday whenever a new contestant is posted
Note to new users: shares in "Other" get automatically converted whenever a new option is added. So if you buy "Yes" shares you are voting towards all the non-listed competitors and similarly if you buy "No" shares
People are also trading
There will be around 13 reviews posted overall, so "average" should be something like 7%.
From this post, the expected finalists are:
• Alpha School
• School (Review 1 by DK) (promoted from "honorable mention")
• Dementia
• Islamic Geometric Patterns
• Joan of Arc
• Mashed Potatoes
• Men
• Ollantay
• Phase I Research
• Synaptic Plasticity
• The ACX Commentariat
• The Internet That Might Have Been
• The Russo-Ukrainian War
Honorable Mentions (some of which might get promoted) are at least
• Bishop's Castle
• Bukele
• Elon Musk's Algorithm
• JFK Conspiracies
• Martial Arts
• Miniatur Wunderland
• Watergate
All the reviews are linked here.
@TaymonBeal I don't think it takes a large cognitive leap to see the connection between seeing something as really well done and betting it up from like 0.5 to 2% when you think the other options were not as impressive.
@No_uh I'm not sure 2% is completely unreasonable, that's very low odds, but it only has 230 likes and that is the best proxy for the vote we have.
@vlad it was #1 in my ranked choice. followed closely by project xanadu and alpha school, in that order iirc
@Chumchulum this is up to Scott! If he decides to include a new contender I'll add it here. However, since vote is already open I think this is unlikely
@BayesianTom I'm guessing it'll hurt Men in the bay area one, despite it being high up. Many seem like they really like, but those who didn't seemed to actively dislike it, so it's not likely to get into the 2nd and 3rd ranks? This might be cope on my end.
@Aevylmar "The Russo-Ukrainian War" was the most recent review and those always get a transient boost, I wouldn't read into it.
@TaymonBeal It has third-most likes even though it hasn't been up for long. I think it's at least in the top 3 most likely to win.
@CharliePye that depends on whether her fortune/divine aid continues or if it was just getting lucky, doesn't it?
@Wott new question: If Joan of Arc wins everything-except-book review, how many souls will be saved?