Who will win ACX's Everything-except-book review in 2025?
281
2.2kṀ85k
Dec 31
24%
Alpha School
20%
Dating Men In The Bay Area
16%
The Russo-Ukrainian War
14%
Joan of Arc
8%
Participation in Phase I Clinical Pharmaceutical Research
5%
My Father's Instant Mashed Potatoes
4%
Project Xanadu - The Internet That Might Have Been
1.9%
Ollantay
1.3%
Other
1.2%
Islamic Geometric Patterns In The Metropolitan Museum Of Art
1.2%
School
1.1%
Synaptic Plasticity and Memory Hypothesis
1%
Of Mice, Mechanisms, and Dementia

Since the roster may change, I will add an option each friday whenever a new contestant is posted

Note to new users: shares in "Other" get automatically converted whenever a new option is added. So if you buy "Yes" shares you are voting towards all the non-listed competitors and similarly if you buy "No" shares

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There will be around 13 reviews posted overall, so "average" should be something like 7%.

From this post, the expected finalists are:

• Alpha School

• School (Review 1 by DK) (promoted from "honorable mention")

• Dementia

• Islamic Geometric Patterns

• Joan of Arc

• Mashed Potatoes

• Men

• Ollantay

• Phase I Research

• Synaptic Plasticity

• The ACX Commentariat

• The Internet That Might Have Been

• The Russo-Ukrainian War

Honorable Mentions (some of which might get promoted) are at least

• Bishop's Castle

• Bukele

• Elon Musk's Algorithm

• JFK Conspiracies

• Martial Arts

• Miniatur Wunderland

• Watergate

All the reviews are linked here.

All my mana is invested. I have no more to invest.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 5% order

I put a limit order NO 5% for My Father's Mashed Potatoes. Abe Simpson and Bernie Sanders, take my money!

bought Ṁ10 YES

I know it's not that popular but participating in phase 1 clinical trials was by far the best for me so far. It's actually something grounded and important on a more daily tangible level than many of the other ones I read.

Sure, but this is a prediction market, so shouldn't you bet on the one you think other people will vote for?

@TaymonBeal I don't think it takes a large cognitive leap to see the connection between seeing something as really well done and betting it up from like 0.5 to 2% when you think the other options were not as impressive.

bought Ṁ2 YES

@No_uh I'm not sure 2% is completely unreasonable, that's very low odds, but it only has 230 likes and that is the best proxy for the vote we have.

@No_uh yeah, was also surprised to see it so low. I voted for it

@vlad it was #1 in my ranked choice. followed closely by project xanadu and alpha school, in that order iirc

bought Ṁ1 YES

Putting out a call for new options!

filled a Ṁ1 YES at 11% order

@BayesianTom Will you add any this Friday?

@Chumchulum this is up to Scott! If he decides to include a new contender I'll add it here. However, since vote is already open I think this is unlikely

It appears I have very good taste. LOL

bought Ṁ3 NO

I am wondering what is the effect of ranked choice voting in this market, who gets a boost and who gets a penalty, and why?

@BayesianTom I'm guessing it'll hurt Men in the bay area one, despite it being high up. Many seem like they really like, but those who didn't seemed to actively dislike it, so it's not likely to get into the 2nd and 3rd ranks? This might be cope on my end.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@BayesianTom I agree with M mmm. and expect the same to happen with Joan.

Hodling Joan, may God reward me for my faith!

bought Ṁ30 YES

Alpha School is objectively the best, but Dating Men in the Bay Area has the most likes. The Russo-Ukrainian War gained a lot of likes really quickly. This is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

bought Ṁ7 YES

I really regret investing so much in Joan early, I'd underestimated the performance of the Russo-Ukraine War review.

@Aevylmar "The Russo-Ukrainian War" was the most recent review and those always get a transient boost, I wouldn't read into it.

@TaymonBeal It has third-most likes even though it hasn't been up for long. I think it's at least in the top 3 most likely to win.

@Aevylmar do you think the real Joan of Arc could win the Rusdo-Ukraine war?

@CharliePye For which side?

@CharliePye that depends on whether her fortune/divine aid continues or if it was just getting lucky, doesn't it?

@AndrewMaxwell either way

Joan of Arc is low for someone who has miraculously won battles before. Ye of little faith.

@Wott new question: If Joan of Arc wins everything-except-book review, how many souls will be saved?

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