Will Waymo be fully deployed in LA by the end of 2024?
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Context:

Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city.

Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024. In the 9 months after that, before the end of the year, will you be able to book a ride?

Criteria:
Allow anyone downloading the app to book a ride in LA without a waitlist or invite codes by December 31st, 2024.

An announcement doesn't count, you have to be able to book a ride.

There has to be significant deployment of cars and service areas covering large parts of LA, so one could reasonably expect to get a ride i.e. an LA equivalent of Zoox's testing within Foster City wouldn't count as a full deployment, you should be able to go a reasonable distance such as between most or all of it's testing areas; Santa Monica; Century City; WeHo; Mid City; K-Town and DTLA.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

@BenLoveitt this happened in Nov — see my comment below, can resolve now

@BenLoveitt this can resolve yes now (see below comment)

@BenLoveitt The current operating area is a pretty small fraction of the LA city limits. (Less than half the population I think.) Are you going to resolve this as “yes” if rides are bookable without a waitlist even if it remain as geographically limited as it is now? Or does it have too look more like the area in the James Hoffman tweet?

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fgb3do15kxw0d1.jpeg

https://images.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/5XK7iJp3a1KurVXHoZUgLF/1216cbf9b321d4f080faeec8b8fe5eb2/LAmap_mobile_1080x1480_Whereyoucango.png?fm=webp

In the original post, I defined it as the testing area, which is now live (with a slightly larger area just announced). So if they take off the waitlist for LA, I would resolve it 'yes' as things stand.

It will take several years of exponential growth to scale the fleet to satisfy demand in a region with 10M+ people, so this is mostly a bet on whether Waymo ends up allowing prices to rise significantly higher than Uber/Lyft versus the current strategy of (roughly) pegging to a 10% premium over Uber/Lyft and curbing demand with a waitlist.

They're taking payment in LA now and anecdotally they're letting people off the waitlist

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/waymo-will-launch-paid-robotaxi-service-los-angeles-wednesday-rcna147101

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/14/1238489046/waymo-robotaxi-los-angeles
Slightly late to update this but Waymo is but the cars are now roaming around all of LA. It's still an invite only list and free for now but will be changing to paid service soon

Why is the probability here so different from this other market? https://manifold.markets/BenLoveitt/will-waymo-be-fully-deployed-in-la

@BenLoveitt Do you know what’s going on with this? How do the resolution criteria differ?

predictedNO

without a waitlist or invite codes

this is the key bit

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