Sounds like a market that’ll only resolve if he dies or if the uk stops to exist

@RichardKnoche may it resolve soon

@RichardKnoche fair point, updated the question

I think that if the current UK case doesn't get in a way of him going back to UK he will be able to win a lot of votes with his influence

@Bebop He would need to find ~350 other people who are both prepared to be associated with him and electable across the country for him to have a chance of becoming Prime Minister.

This is correctly priced at <1% probability...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I think you underestimate how many people that could be. We could even say given how financially successful he is, that would imply he would also have lots of connections with people that know him that could do that.

@Bebop I don't think it's 100% but it's higher than 1% imo

@Bebop I don't think 8,000,000 British voters (a conservative estimate of how many would need to 'vote BRUV' for them to win 326 seats) know who Andrew Tate is.

While he does indeed have ~10,000,000 followers on X (let's pretend they are all real, over 18 and in the UK), I'm confident that at least 20% of those think he's a massive bell-end, 25% think he's a misogynist and 30% think he's a rapist.

I guess how much those groups overlap might have an influence...

I think it's more likely that one of the Tates declares voting 'gay' (like ornaments) thus cratering their turnout, than it is they manage to find suitable candidates to facilitate their sweep to power...