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MANIFOLD
Will someone other than Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister at any point before 1 August 2028?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20
2028
51%
chance

This market resolves based on whether any individual other than Andy Burnham formally holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time during the period from 21 July 2026 up to and including 1 August 2028 (UK local time).

Resolves YES if:

  • Any person other than Andy Burnham is formally appointed Prime Minister by the monarch during the resolution window; or

  • Any person other than Andy Burnham serves as Prime Minister, including in an acting, interim, or caretaker capacity, for any duration (even briefly) within the resolution window; or

  • Andy Burnham resigns, dies, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold office and another individual assumes the role, even temporarily, before the end date.

Resolves NO if:

  • Andy Burnham remains Prime Minister continuously throughout the entire period up to and including 1 August 2028, with no other individual holding the office at any point; and

  • No interim, acting, or caretaker Prime Minister other than Andy Burnham serves during this time.

Clarifications:

  • There is no minimum duration requirement: even a very brief tenure by another individual qualifies for a YES resolution.

  • “Holding the office” is determined by formal constitutional practice (i.e., appointment by the monarch), not merely media speculation or informal delegation.

  • Temporary incapacity where no other person is formally appointed Prime Minister does not count as a change.

  • If there is ambiguity, resolution should rely on reputable public records (e.g., official UK government announcements, parliamentary records, or widely accepted historical documentation).

Resolution timing:
This market resolves as soon after a qualifying event occurs (YES), or otherwise on 1 August 2028 at 23:59 UK time (NO).

Market context
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