This market resolves YES if:
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.
See also Polymarket's market.
See also:
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.
Localized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.
1,000@Bayesian Russia comes to an agreement with US, acknowledged by Russia, acknowledged by US, fighting ends in Ukraine, but no statement from Ukraine. How are you resolving? Start working on defining some of these edge cases now.
@ChadCotty I know, but I've been to this rodeo before. Start thinking of some scenarios and get clarity.
@Predictor The main ambiguity I can imagine would be if both announce they intend to agree to a full ceasefire prior to the deadline, the agreement is actually signed after the deadline and goes into effect however many days after it was signed. The effective date is still immaterial, but which date was the agreement reached?
@ChadCotty Announcing an agreement is required. Announcing an expectation of future agreement is not sufficient. I dont think the agreement needs to be signed necessarily? That last sentence is not a market resolution clarification more a question about how these things work bc I don’t know what’s typical. Do people hear ‘agreement’ and think that must necessarily be a signed agreement? I’d guess no but idk
A lot of the public in the US (and some officials) seem to have wrong impressions about Europe not doing much. Ofc it would be a hit, but Europe can also scale up more and it wouldn‘t be terribly different for Ukraine. The US is not “absolutely needed“.
@ScipioFabius Of course, yes, the super rare "rare earth minerals." Are those in the room with you right now?
please everyone focus on predicting and sharing information and staying on the object-level. I'd like that ppl don't feel the need to mute this market because it gets low level engagement
@beaver1 Americans are chronically vertically challenged, maybe, just maybe, do some breading so it doesn't feel like I'm talking to children.
Edit: This is a civil comment. I am simply stating a fact and giving a possible solution to the issue at hand.
I don't understand how anyone can think the Europeans (lol) would have been useful in Saudi Arabia, given how decrepit their governments are:
Vance's Munich speech was spot-on.
@AlQuinn The Europeans are Destitute, Depraved, and Defeated.
this is how i would start my TEDDD talk. i would say those words then i would crush a can of coke and throw it at the audience. then i would promptly bid any anti european marker on manifold the prediction market website.