This market resolves YES if:
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.
See also Polymarket's market.
See also:
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.
Localized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.
1,000Ceasefire for energy and Black Sea. Witkoff estimates that general ceasefire should happen within about 2 weeks of the Black Sea ceasefire
Not quite yet: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/25/europe-russia-us-ukraine-security-blunder-latest-live-news-updates
"Russia said it would commit to a Black Sea truce once US sanctions are lifted on key financial institutions supporting its food exports."
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Russia getting back to full fertilizer and food exports will lower the price of corn. Corn is used to feed cows and other animals, which will lower beef and milk prices. Food inflation can lower for USA, Africa and Middle east by late in 2025. Win, win for US to speed this up. Lower inflation will mean easier to lower interest rates.
@beaver1 Polymarket is at ~17% for this.
No meaningful shift in facts on the ground once Kursk is settled. Neither side is hurt by a ceasefire to work out land exchange. US can take control of disputed reactors (and other assets) and disputed areas can go to neutral de-militarized zones.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-24-2025
@brianwang There are still many conditions to determine, like whether the US will still be sending supplies to Ukraine during the ceasefire. I expect that to be a sticking point.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 this is the big question but it seems like the solution is to take a page from hamas' playbook: 1/ stop direct aid 2/ put a US interest on the frontline to create a modicum of security guarantee 3/ prevent backdooring nuclear capabilities
everyone will violate that treaty but it will still be a stable equilibrium, like the bangladeshi border lol
@beaver1 And you think the mineral deal that the US was negotiating with Ukraine will work for step 2? Does Trump still plan to sign that?
@brianwang Trump is vehemently against the US importing food so it seems off-brand to champion a peace deal because it would let the US import cheaper corn.
@MartinRandall It would reduce the global price of fertilizer. The US would not have to import it. It is like reducing global oil prices by shifting global supply and demand. Lower fertilizer cost then boosts corn production The US imports about Half of its fertilizer. 46% from Canada. But also from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other places
@HillaryClinton If I take the other side and the trade goes my way…you won’t have any hard feelings, right?
Lmao the second any kind of ceasefire is agreed on, Putin will just break it like he did the Minsk agreements. Idea of a ceasefire is a joke.
@AltPutin I'm coming for your parade. Victory to Ukraine! We will fight, no ceasefire that gives you Ukraine. Bet against me.
@skibidist on one hand I want to save lives, on the other I want fake Internet points. The choice is obvious.