Fill me at 35% lads.

That Trump doesn‘t have to be involved at all makes the question/name of the market misleading. That’s not what that question means in common language.

“Will Trump end…“ strongly implies causation, at least to some definite & not easily deniable amount.

Maybe either modify the resolution criteria (“war ends in the first 90 days of him assuming office“) or the title (“Will the war end before Trump‘s first 90 days in office are over“) ?

That you would resolve YES even if the war ends tomorrow and everybody (including you) agrees that Trump had nothing to do with it makes it obviously confusing & markets shouldn‘t have clearly confusing/misleading titles.

if someone reads the ambiguous title and bets, knowing it’s ambiguous instead of reading the description, they knowingly took a risk. I think the other phrasing would gain a bit in obviousness but people are more interested in a market if it’s framed in terms of being close in time to trump’s inauguration, so it’s a tradeoff. You’re welcome to create a similar market with a clearer title though, sorry

@Bayesian My point is that this is not ambiguous. It's clear language but communicates the wrong idea. (That's what I meant by “confusing“, the title and resolution criteria are in conflict.)

Your reply presupposes that it is ambiguous and that therefore traders should know to be cautious. This is what I'm disagreeing with.

@Bayesian agree. That's what I assumed. Anything else would be too subjective.

This Ukraine nonsense must stop!

What if Ukraine or Russia collapses or withdraws?

If that leads to the end of the war then this would resolve yes

So Trump doesn’t need to be involved at all?

@Gerben That’s correct

It's Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not the "Ukraine war". And the way for it to end is for Russia to stop invading.

@Lorelai my preferred way of and end is for Russia to get kicked out and Putin gets gaddhafied. However, Ukraine conceding all or large parts of its territory and making other unreasonable concessions like disarming, is also a way this can end.

@Enlil "all" seems unlikely and I get the impression arms production is amping up. Disarming is surrender and Ukrainians won't be doing that either.

@MaxHarms wanna do 30%?

Does the ceasefire need to be permanent (or at least indefinite length) to count for this?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 isn't Israel the only conflict where we keep talking about creasefire instead of peace?