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This was a 100% YES resolution based on the criteria you provided @Bayesian, don’t be fucking around like this.

I ain’t fucking around, Predictor.

Should be NO, Zelensky did not agree to it. As shrimple as that. I had massive positions on Yes too, and I think Bayesian did the right thing.

@Bayesian Idk. Seems like you are slightly fucking about.

Thanks to everyone for their respectful comments.

The market resolves No.

My decision as to market resolution largely reflects @draaglom 's comment here: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with#v246zj8g1bp

Temporary detour:

My initial thought was that if a genuine, bilaterally agreed and comprehensive ceasefire (even for a day) had been announced, I would maybe lean toward YES based on my personal reading and my clarification ("'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count"). Polymarket's decision to use the alternative interpretation, where "indicative of a temporary end to the conflict" doesn't count "one day long stop to the conflict" as a temporary end to the conflict, is probably more reasonable. Due to the value in resolving in accordance with Polymarket and the interpretation being plausibly more sensible than my own, I would have plausibly still resolved the market to "No", but would have likely involved a mod panel.

However,

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be

1. indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict,

2. must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and

3. be declared

   1. through official channels

   2. by both countries.

4. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.

(4) Announcements were made within this market's timeframe.

(3.1) Twitter announcements by country leaders or their Ministry of Foreign Affairs count as official announcements, so the announcements were made through official channels by both countries.

(3.2, Russia) Russia successfully announced a ceasefire that meets this market's criteria.

(3.2, Ukraine) However, Ukraine didn't.

Zelensky:

If Russia is now suddenly ready to truly engage in a format of full and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act accordingly — mirroring Russia’s actions. Silence in response to silence, defensive strikes in response to attacks.

(3.2, Ukraine) The most common sense interpretation of this statement is that Ukraine is offering a ceasefire conditional on Russia being truthful in its offer of a ceasefire, but is uncertain about whether Russia is truthful. As such, Ukraine is not announcing a ceasefire, but one conditional on Russia's actual "silence".

And in fact, later:

As of now... Russian assault operations continue... Therefore, there is no trust in words coming from Moscow.

Also, Zelensky:

The Kursk and Belgorod regions — Easter statements by Putin did not extend to this territory.

(2) So Zelensky doesn't believe that whatever ceasefire is being offered pertains to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries.

Since Ukraine did not announce a ceasefire, and the ceasefire Putin announced appears not to have applied to the Kursk and Belgorod regions, the market resolves NO.

@Bayesian How you've handled this is commendable, good job :)

Why has this market not resolved yet? @Bayesian

@SvenHoek currently writing my resolution decision

@Bayesian i only have a few hundred riding on this market, and I fully expect it to resolve NO, but have you considered how funny it would be if this resolved YES? People would go insane and it would be very entertaining all around and I would like to live in that world!

@bens I have zero mana riding in this market, but I always prefer living in worlds where markets resolve accurately >>>>>>>>>>>>>> "lol, it's insane and entertaining"

@DavidHiggs Same.

@bens You can take a look at the comments in the related, but due to different criteria not identical, Polymarket market, where people are going insane because that one resolved NO.

@CalibratedNeutral People on Polymarket go insane even when markets are resolved correctly, e.g. the government shutdown market. Also, the criteria here are copy-pasted from the Polymarket, so how aren't they identical?

@bens

"must pertain to all theaters of war"

Kursk was never offered a ceasefire per this statement:

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1914075588945432899?t=5if_OoMeIP4RLtejHb-OlA&s=19

@HillaryClinton He is saying that violations of the ceasefire occurred in Kursk, contrary to what Putin promised. That doesn't mean that the original agreement didn't include Kursk. Also, "The nature of Ukraine’s actions will remain symmetrical: ceasefire will be met with ceasefire". So there is an agreement on ceasefire.

@CalibratedNeutral exactly, symmetrical to Russia's actions.

Independent media were reporting this as a ceasefire, agreed upon by both sides: "Kyiv agreed to the truce" (1), and that the parties "accuse each other of breaking one-day Easter ceasefire" (2, 3), further corroborating that this was indeed an agreed upon ceasefire, because otherwise it could not be broken.
A ceasefire is even stronger than the "[indication] of at least the temporary end of the [...] military conflict", since it is not merely the indication of this temporary end, but actually is such a temporary end: https://www.google.com/search?q=temporary+end+of+military+conflict.

(1) https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/20/europe/ukraine-easter-ceasefire-violations-intl/
(2) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-russian-army-trying-create-impression-easter-ceasefire-2025-04-20/
(3) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/20/easter-truce-in-russias-ukraine-war-marked-by-accusations-of-violations

@CalibratedNeutral no. There are a multitude of reports indicating firing along the contact lines.
Stop trying to convince people otherwise.

@SvenHoek From the market description: "This market resolves YES if:

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia". What matters is the announcement.

@CalibratedNeutral From the market description:

> must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict

How does the announcement of a few days of armistice have anything to do with an end of the conflict?

And no, the "Easter truce" (even if it were upheld) is not even a temporary end of the conflict, because a temporary end involves a truce with the intent of ending the war, which is later broken and thus only temporary. The "Easter truce" does not contain the slightest intention to be an end to the war.

@JonasSourlier "[A] temporary end involves a truce with the intent of ending the war, which is later broken and thus only temporary."
None of this is in the market description. Neither that the intent has to be to bring a final end to the war, nor that it has to be broken later.

@CalibratedNeutral it is in the market description:

must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict

If you think, this does not mean any intention to end the conflict, then please answer my question from before: How does the announcement of a few days of armistice have anything to do with an end of the conflict?

"must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military"

Even if it happened (which it didn't), a 30 hour truce is not indicative of the temporary end of the war. We had stoppages in fighting for Christmas during WW1 and WW2. No one thought the war was ending.

From the (non-comprehensive) Manifold community guidelines, key quote:

General expectations

- Users strive to be excellent to one another.

Difficult, contested resolutions are a fundamental part of prediction markets. You are welcome to argue in favor of your preferred resolution in the comments. You are not welcome to engage in personal attacks (whether against the creator or other traders).