Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp) 

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term) 

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot 

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position 

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out 

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month 

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program 

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

A measurable decrease in chronic disease 

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate 

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028 

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader 

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives 

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.

Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved. If I don't reply within a day, you can keep repinging me, or dming me if that's a recurring issue. I try to see creator pings but may miss some.