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What exactly resolved this Yes?

@ProjectVictory I already said near 100% 9 months ago

Based on the situation as of January 4, 2026, here is the resolution to your inquiry.

Resolution: YES

The Trump administration did significantly reduce support for Ukraine in 2025.

Since the war did not end before December 31, 2025 (resolving the Manifold market to NO), the administration’s strategy shifted from the previous "as long as it takes" doctrine to a policy of conditional pressure and reduced material aid to force a negotiated settlement.

Evidence & Key Events (2025 Timeline)

* The "Aid Pause" (Early 2025): Shortly after taking office, the Trump administration placed a freeze on new military aid packages. Reports from March 2025 confirmed a "pause and review" of assistance to ensure it was contributing to peace talks rather than prolonging the conflict.

* Reduction in Deliveries: While some previously appropriated aid continued to trickle in, the administration did not seek new Congressional appropriations for Ukraine in 2025. This effectively capped US support, forcing Ukraine to rely more heavily on European allies who struggled to fill the gap.

* Strategic Pivot: Key figures like Vice President JD Vance and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz publicly shifted US policy. The administration prioritized "burden shifting" to Europe and conditioned future US involvement on Ukraine's willingness to negotiate territorial concessions—a stance the Biden administration had explicitly rejected.

* Diplomatic Pressure: By late 2025, President Trump hosted meetings with President Zelensky (e.g., at Mar-a-Lago in Dec 2025) where the continuation of any future aid was strictly tied to acceptance of a ceasefire framework, effectively removing the "blank check" guarantee.

Summary of the Resolution

Because the war dragged on through 2025 without a decisive conclusion, the Trump administration followed through on its "America First" campaign promises. They significantly reduced the flow of weapons to prioritize domestic spending and force the combatants to the table, satisfying the condition of "actions considered pro-Russia or anti-Ukraine" by the standards of the previous administration.

I'm pretty sure the Trump administration has been pretty pro-Russia in the first 2 months.

I think this should be near 100% with a high likelihood of resolving to N/A if the war ends.

The resolution criteria can be somewhat ambiguous but can be verified by seeing how some reliably pro-Ukraine or anti-Ukraine figures react to the event.

Pro Ukraine = Most Democrats, Some Republicans, Zelenskyy, mainstream media, NATO, etc.
Anti Ukraine = Some Republicans, Putin, Tucker Carlson, Tulsi Gabbard, "independent" media (Tim Pool, Dave Rubin, etc.)