Will Project 2025 accomplish its plans in 2025?
Will Project 2025 accomplish its plans in 2025?
11
240Ṁ412
2026
17%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

Project 2025 (officially the Presidential Transition Project) is a collection of policy proposals to reshape the executive branch of the U.S. federal government at an unprecedented scale in the event of a Republican victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

[...]

The plan proposes slashing U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) funding, dismantling the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, gutting environmental and climate change regulations to favor fossil fuel production, and eliminating the cabinet Departments of Education and Commerce.

Will Project 2025 succeed, in that it accomplishes any of these through a Republican government?:

  • Reducing by more than half the US Department of Justice (DOJ) funding

  • Dismantling the FBI

  • Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

  • Eliminating the Department of Education

  • Eliminating the Department of Commerce

I ignored the climate change one because it's vague. Open to suggestions for operationalizing it.

If the Republican party loses the election, resolves NO.

If it wins the election, and does one or more of the things on the list, resolves YES.

Resolves NO at the end of 2025 if it's still open at that time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
11mo

baruch hashem🙏

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules