Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?
14
382
1k
2025
25%
chance

This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2025 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the IMOs in 2023, 2024 or 2025 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).

This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2026. It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2025 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.

This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).

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predicts NO

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predicts YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Wait does it have to produce a proof for all problems, or just get a gold metal?

predicts NO

@BoltonBailey I wrote the description wrong, it just has to get enough points for a gold medal. Thanks for asking!

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I'm trading on this market because I feel that the resolution criteria are objective enough for that. I can think of scenarios where it is still ambiguous, but I think all of those are very unlikely, and I'm happy to clarify any such ambiguities well in advance.
If someone is uncomfortable with this, please let me know.

bought Ṁ56 of YES

@FlorisvanDoorn I have decided that I shouldn't be trading on this market after all, since there is is still a tiny bit of subjectivity in this market. I put up a limit order to sell the remainder of my shares (at the highest percentage that doesn't result in a loss for me - my true belief is way lower), and am not planning to trade anymore after that.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Here is a market for a different year: