This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2025 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the IMOs in 2023, 2024 or 2025 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).
This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2026. It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2025 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.
This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).
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@FlorisvanDoorn Wait does it have to produce a proof for all problems, or just get a gold metal?
@BoltonBailey I wrote the description wrong, it just has to get enough points for a gold medal. Thanks for asking!
I'm trading on this market because I feel that the resolution criteria are objective enough for that. I can think of scenarios where it is still ambiguous, but I think all of those are very unlikely, and I'm happy to clarify any such ambiguities well in advance. If someone is uncomfortable with this, please let me know.
@FlorisvanDoorn I have decided that I shouldn't be trading on this market after all, since there is is still a tiny bit of subjectivity in this market. I put up a limit order to sell the remainder of my shares (at the highest percentage that doesn't result in a loss for me - my true belief is way lower), and am not planning to trade anymore after that.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?