Will the International Space Station be functional and crewed in 2025?
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2026
94%
chance

Background: The ISS is currently scheduled to operate through 2024. The US has extended its participation through 2030: https://www.space.com/congress-approves-iss-extension-2030-chips-act. However, Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html

Resolves YES if there is at least 1 crew member aboard the International Space Station on December 31 2025.

See https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions for information on the ISS crew.

Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-there-be-fewer-than-2-russian

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