When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")?
7
1.2kṀ1384
Jun 24
June 10, 2025
1.5%
March 2025
24%
April 2025
37%
May 2025
19%
June 2025
3%
July 2025
3%
August 2025
3%
September 2025
3%
October 2025
2%
November 2025
2%
December 2025
3%
January 2026

  • Update 2025-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if the following conditions are met:

    • Grok 3.5 is released.

    • AND at the time of Grok 3.5's release, there is no indication that Grok 3.0 Thinking is forthcoming.

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@Bayesian how will this question be resolved? The next model will likely be 3.5 and I don't think we will get Grok 3 Thinking

@Fynn

i don't even see grok 3 thinking beta in the api, confusion

@Bayesian maybe close and N/A if nobody has a better idea?

@Fynn I think I’ll na if / when 3.5 drops with no indication of 3.0 thinking coming out

why is april not near 0? are we assuming it might actually have been released as grok 3.1 already (per https://x.com/testingcatalog/status/1920806273324331055)?

bought Ṁ1 YES

How does this resolve if it's not released by end of Jan 2026?

@outsideness it's a bit cursed bc it's probable that they're just rebranding grok 3 to grok 3.5 bc of further post training but i think the intent is for jan 2026 to be "jan 2026 or later / never"? I'm not sure

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Bayesian OK, I'll hold you to that

@outsideness Bad idea, i said im not sure. Either it’s that or I N/A the market due to the ambiguity.

@Bayesian well, I think it's how these new date markets are meant to work, just like other numeric markets work

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