Resolves YES if, between market creation and December 6, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, xAI makes a model whose official name starts with "Grok 5" (for example Grok 5, Grok 5 Heavy, Grok 5 mini, Grok 5.1, including a "beta" or "preview" label) available for the public to use, in at least one of:
the Grok app, grok.com, or Grok inside X, for any free or paid tier, or
the xAI API (listed on https://docs.x.ai/docs/models).
Resolves NO otherwise.
How I'll check: the xAI models page (https://docs.x.ai/docs/models), xAI's official announcements (x.ai/news or the @xai account on X), and a news report confirming public access.
What does NOT count:
An announcement, demo, benchmark post or livestream without public access.
Access limited to invited testers, enterprise partners or a waitlist.
Grok 4.x models of any number (4.8, 4.9, etc.), however they are marketed.
Background: as of November 7, 2026 the newest model on the xAI models page is Grok 4.7 (released September 21). Elon Musk has said several times since July that Grok 5 was weeks away, but no release date has been announced.
I won't trade in this market for at least 7 days after creating it.
1,000Opened at 12%. My reasoning: xAI's models page still tops out at Grok 4.7 (https://docs.x.ai/docs/models). Musk called Grok 5 a few weeks away in July and again in August, then said "10 days" on Sept 1, and it still hasn't shipped. Reports say his September roadmap put Grok 4.8 and 4.9 first, which makes a release inside the next month unlikely. Polymarket had release by Dec 31 near 47% in October, so a Dec 6 deadline should sit well below that.
What would move me up: Grok 4.8 and 4.9 both shipping soon, Grok 5 showing up in the API docs or the app code, or xAI itself (not just Musk) naming a date. A surprise drop is the main risk, since xAI has shipped with little warning before.