@AffineTyped do you put ~1% on r2 in nov? if so why? i am puzzled

@Bayesian V3.1 is what 4.5 was to GPT-5 ;)

@AffineTyped for real though I'm just bearish on them and haven't thought hard about $0.50 bets I'm placing here

@Bayesian Resolves NO

@Bayesian Resolves NO

@Bayesian ?

@Bayesian resolves NO?

https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-0528 deepseek R1 v2 released

deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-0528 · Hugging Face

We’re on a journey to advance and democratize artificial intelligence through open source and open science.

@JCl calling it R1 v2 is a bit generous

@256 this doesn't count for the purpose of this market but ty for sharing

@Bayesian look at July, I have no mana but i think u might want to bet on this. maybe overpriced maybe not??? idk

@NoAnswer thx for flagging, idk how ppl justify this level of confidence

@Bayesian np

https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-Prover-V2-671B

Free mana come get it

https://x.com/ClementDelangue/status/1916345020791001181

https://x.com/amir/status/1900583042659541477

Guys you are way too conservative if you don't think they're going to share R2 in the next 3 months. Each of their runs took a week. And now they have even more compute. They'll have another model ready in a month at the rate they're going.

@JCl You have to look at this question as well:https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

Yes very probable to have a new Deepseek model in the next few months but it might not be called R2.

@adssx r2 will come before v4.

what if it's called R3? (R2 is a well-known Disney character)

@jim right i forgot to add to the description that slight deviations in naming are fine

@Bayesian what if it's called Maltesers

actually nvm i don't buy it, it has to be named R2 and R2 only gosh darnit

@Bayesian ok, u might want to clean up the AI annotations

what if its called R2D2

@jim I don't see it. the AIs fear me so don't annotate

oh i was editing description which made the manifold ai edit disappear. get rekt

@Bayesian nvm i liked its edit more than what i came up with i'll plagiarize

@Bayesian it's like one year until we're all fully obsolete

@jim some of us are already obsolete

@Bayesian name names

hey that would be rude