Do we agree that V4-thinking should count as R2 or nah? thoughts @traders

@Bayesian It would depend on whether R2 as a model would ever actually come out or not. Since they have stated they plan to release R2 and V4 as separate models, currently would make sense to not.

@DarklyMade

Since they have stated they plan to release R2 and V4 as separate models

Oh this is news to me. I'm curious where you saw this? If that's the case then yeah I agree the idea would moreso be to fallback to V4-Think if that's what R2 was "meant" to be or it's generally understood that that's the new major reasoning model from DeepSeek and the R<n> family is gobbled up by the V<n> family of models if that makes sense

@Bayesian I don't think it should count. This is a market about R2. Minor name changes are allowed, but surely not an entirely different model family?

@Bayesian I say no for the simple reason that we have a separate market about this. If someone wanted to bet on V4, they could have done it there. This was about R2, the successor to R1 as determined by DeepSeek and their naming conventions, not us. https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

@jim The thing is r1 is not a different model family as v3 in the usual sense of that term, no?

Also, we had R1-0528, V3.1, V3.1 Terminus, and V3.2 Exp. It seems arbitrary to draw the line by saying V4 thinking is the correct successor for the purposes of this market rather than any of those. DeepSeek had a naming convention and people bet on it. If they stop using that convention I say everything resolves NO.

@AffineTyped do you put ~1% on r2 in nov? if so why? i am puzzled

@Bayesian V3.1 is what 4.5 was to GPT-5 ;)

@AffineTyped for real though I'm just bearish on them and haven't thought hard about $0.50 bets I'm placing here

@Bayesian Resolves NO

@Bayesian Resolves NO

@Bayesian ?

@Bayesian resolves NO?

https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-0528 deepseek R1 v2 released

deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-0528 · Hugging Face

We’re on a journey to advance and democratize artificial intelligence through open source and open science.

@JCl calling it R1 v2 is a bit generous

@256 this doesn't count for the purpose of this market but ty for sharing

@Bayesian look at July, I have no mana but i think u might want to bet on this. maybe overpriced maybe not??? idk

@NoAnswer thx for flagging, idk how ppl justify this level of confidence

@Bayesian np

https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-Prover-V2-671B

Free mana come get it

https://x.com/ClementDelangue/status/1916345020791001181

https://x.com/amir/status/1900583042659541477

Guys you are way too conservative if you don't think they're going to share R2 in the next 3 months. Each of their runs took a week. And now they have even more compute. They'll have another model ready in a month at the rate they're going.

@JCl You have to look at this question as well:https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

Yes very probable to have a new Deepseek model in the next few months but it might not be called R2.

@adssx r2 will come before v4.