@mods
It is March-June 2026

@ManifoldAI

@Bayesian order up

@256 My credence is not lower than 20% unfortunately

oh i see now. No more coder after 2.5, no more reasoner after r1. They unify. Hmm

...and also I'm guessing 3.1 does not count too?

@TotalVerb No

doesn’t R1 update count based on description? or nah? up to you

@NoAnswer is there any precedent for markets like these resolving for things like 4o or 2.5 pro updates? i have never seen that.

@256 i mean the description says this, which would imply that the deepseek r1 update counts. “Does not have to be named R2 explicitly; would be whatever model that succeeds R1, likely model behind the deepseek-reasoner endpoint.”

edit: lol i'm tired, totally thought this was my market

@NoAnswer a model successor is not the same as a model update

I guess based on market pricing, R1-0528 does not count.

@TotalVerb dont let that fool you im the only one pushing it down.

arb