It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

A second major version of the model has been released

A third major version of the model has been released

It was accessible to the public before May 2024

Full description of model architecture will be public

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)

Unless otherwise specified, the options are about the state of OpenAI's latest video model at the end of 2025. Options about things that might happen before then, or by a specific date before then, are also acceptable.

I'll N/A duplicates and options I consider to not be valid. If an option refers to an external source, I encourage the option creator to notify me when/if the option should resolve.

For the purpose of this market, any Text-to-Video model released by OpenAI after Sora will count.