What will be the best performance on FrontierMath Tier 4 by December 31st 2025?
8
1kṀ656Dec 31
19%
0% - 10%
32%
10 - 20%
27%
20 - 30%
4%
30 - 40%
3%
40 - 50%
3%
50 - 60%
3%
60 - 70%
3%
70 - 80%
3%
80 - 90%
3%
90 - 100%
The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31st 2025. See https://epoch.ai/frontiermath, under the section Tier 4, for results accepted for the purpose of this market. The "performance" is measured in terms of Pass@1 Accuracy.
At market creation (and day of the official announcement of the benchmark), the best model is o4-mini (high), with a score of 6.25%.
See also best performance on FrontierMath Tier 1-3:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@Bayesian Yeah. But I didn't do too much research on the questions I just know they are unique from trainable datasets, and require a lot of reasoning steps. I think we need a new method that will help AIs better generalize their learnings and skills from different domains.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
63% chance
Top FrontierMath score in 2025?
60.2
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
13% chance
How well will Grok 4 do on Frontier Math?
15.2
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
70% chance
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
61% chance
Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
2031