What will be the best performance on FrontierMath Tier 4 by December 31st 2025?
2
1kṀ323Dec 31
14%
0% - 10%
35%
10 - 20%
19%
20 - 30%
8%
30 - 40%
5%
40 - 50%
4%
50 - 60%
4%
60 - 70%
4%
70 - 80%
4%
80 - 90%
4%
90 - 100%
The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31st 2025. See https://epoch.ai/frontiermath, under the section Tier 4, for results accepted for the purpose of this market. The "performance" is measured in terms of Pass@1 Accuracy.
At market creation (and day of the official announcement of the benchmark), the best model is o4-mini (high), with a score of 6.25%.
See also best performance on FrontierMath Tier 1-3:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000