What will be the best performance on FrontierMath Tier 4 by December 31st 2025?
11
1kṀ2917Dec 31
0.9%
0% - 10%
57%
10 - 20%
23%
20 - 30%
7%
30 - 40%
3%
40 - 50%
1.8%
50 - 60%
1.8%
60 - 70%
1.8%
70 - 80%
1.8%
80 - 90%
1.8%
90 - 100%
The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31st 2025. See https://epoch.ai/frontiermath, under the section Tier 4, for results accepted for the purpose of this market. The "performance" is measured in terms of Pass@1 Accuracy.
At market creation (and day of the official announcement of the benchmark), the best model is o4-mini (high), with a score of 6.25%.
See also best performance on FrontierMath Tier 1-3:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
57% chance
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?
Top FrontierMath score in 2025?
46.4
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
2% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
32% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
41% chance
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
5% chance
Sort by:
@Bayesian Yeah. But I didn't do too much research on the questions I just know they are unique from trainable datasets, and require a lot of reasoning steps. I think we need a new method that will help AIs better generalize their learnings and skills from different domains.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
57% chance
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?
Top FrontierMath score in 2025?
46.4
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
2% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
32% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
41% chance
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
5% chance