from the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest

 but uses different buckets as AI has already exceeded expectations in this benchmark. If it looks like it will even exceed 50% we will make another market with finer buckets for the top-end.

The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath as of December 31st 2025.

This resolution will use AI Digest as its source. If the number reported is exactly on the boundary (eg. 3%) then the higher choice will be used (ie. 3-5%). 

Any AI system counts if it operates within realistic deployment constraints and doesn't have unfair advantages over human baseliners.

Tool assistance, scaffolding, and any other inference-time elicitation techniques are permitted as long as:

 elicitation technique (which automatically grades and chooses the best out of k outputs from a model) is a common example that we 

 because mathematicians are generally evaluated on their ability to generate a single correct answer, not multiple answers to be automatically graded. So PASS@k would consititute an unfair advantage.

If there is evidence of training contamination leading to substantially increased performance, scores will be accordingly adjusted or disqualified.