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MANIFOLD
When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
45
Ṁ1kṀ8.8k
2030
1.6%
2025
53%
2026
32%
2027
4%
2028
3%
2029
1.5%
2030
5%
later / never

Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.

Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%

https://lastexam.ai/

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Huh, I checked a random question in there out of curiosity and the given answer is just wrong.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc

What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"

@Nikola fixed ty

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