Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
46
Ṁ1kṀ9k
2030
0.7%
2025
54%
2026
34%
2027
3%
2028
2%
2029
1.3%
2030
4%
later / never

Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.

Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%

https://lastexam.ai/

Market context
Technology
AI
Technical AI Timelines
Math
AI Benchmarks
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
99% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
63% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 70% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
33% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
42% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
7% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
90% chance
Sort by:

Huh, I checked a random question in there out of curiosity and the given answer is just wrong.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc

What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"

@Nikola fixed ty

People are also trading

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
99% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
63% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 70% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
33% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
42% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
7% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
90% chance