Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
50
Ṁ1kṀ9.5k
2030
0.5%
2025
36%
2026
43%
2027
6%
2028
1.7%
2029
1.1%
2030
12%
later / never

Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.

Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%

https://lastexam.ai/

Market context
Technology
AI
Math
Technical AI Timelines
AI Benchmarks
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
7% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 70% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
36% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
36% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
90% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
79% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

I think there's a strong chance that >80% is impossible without cheating.

Huh, I checked a random question in there out of curiosity and the given answer is just wrong.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc

What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"

@Nikola fixed ty

People are also trading

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
7% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 70% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
36% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
36% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
90% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
79% chance