When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
Plus
34
Ṁ65602030
16%
2025
51%
2026
18%
2027
3%
2028
3%
2029
2%
2030
6%
later / never
Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.
Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"
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