Resolves to a consensus of reliable sources. Secondary market transactions are not used to determine the valuation.
See also:
1,000People are also trading
@Bayesian is yahoo sufficient to meet the official source requirement or would it require a full funding round?
@Magnify Ig to answer id need to understand where yahoo is getting this number from? Like how d they come up with 210B
@Bayesian evidently it seems to be sourced from this secondary trading platform, where accredited investors are buying and selling stock at that valuation
I think this probably should not count? As far as I can tell this is not typically considered when reporting a company's valuation. Googling, asking chatbots, searching on social media, etc. all indicate that Anthropic's valuation is $183B post money. I'll close the market for a few days and let people argue for or against but my sense is that typically for private companies the valuation is based on the latest funding round
@Bayesian I think it’s odd not to count this as (unless I’m mistaken) actual shares are being traded at that value. Investors are willing to buy it at a valuation of 210B, ergo it’s worth 210B. Disputing this fact seems to go contrary to the entire premise of the stock market, which is kind of not something that can be done.
The main reason I think you’re wrong is you’re assuming that funding rounds are the only way valuation is established. After those shares are purchased, the buyer isn’t simply stuck, that would be absurd. They often can resell them outside funding rounds if the company allows. This is what is happening with ANTH here.
@Magnify only a small number of shares are trading on secondary markets though. And I believe generally through SPVs, though the SPVs do own real shares, as you say.
But buyers pay a premium because they can't access the underlying shares directly. And there's a bunch of different secondary markets, so if you were going to include those you'd need to create an index of them or something.
But generally I think the "valuation" of a startup is not understood to be based on the price of a handful of shares trading on secondary markets.
@rogs if you do want to take into account secondary sales, maybe a principled way to do it would be to take a weighted average price based on the number of shares traded, and include the latest official priced round. I would guess the official round would dominate the weighting and you'd get much closer to that price.
https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation
183B as per latest funding in sept
As per yahoo’s estimate this seems realistic to climb into 200B