Resolution criteria

• This resolves Yes if, within 45 days after the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement (scheduled for Friday, October 10, 2025, 11:00 CEST in Oslo), the Trump administration announces or implements an official punitive U.S. government action that specifically targets the Kingdom of Norway or its government entities, and the action is explicitly linked to Trump not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in either the action’s text or an official statement by the President/White House/State/Treasury within 48 hours of the action. Verification sources include: Nobel announcement time (for the window start); U.S. Treasury (OFAC) sanctions press releases; State Department press briefings/releases; Federal Register (EOs/proclamations); USTR press releases (tariffs/Section 301); BIS Federal Register notices (export controls); Defense.gov releases (suspension/cancellation of exercises/agreements). (nobelprize.org)

• Examples of qualifying “retaliation” includes: new sanctions designations of Norwegian government entities/officials; tariffs/quotas or import bans uniquely or disproportionately applied to Norway; expulsion of Norwegian diplomats or recall of the U.S. ambassador to Norway; suspension/cancellation of bilateral defense cooperation or exercises specifically with Norway; visa restrictions specifically on Norwegian nationals; termination/suspension of a U.S.–Norway agreement/MOU. Rhetoric alone or general/global measures not singling out Norway do not count.

• Resolves No if no qualifying action occurs within the 45‑day window. Resolves N/A if Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize or if no Peace Prize is awarded in 2025. Announcement timing per Nobel Foundation; the 45‑day window opens at the moment of the Oslo announcement. (nobelprize.org)