This market resolves YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee names Donald J. Trump as a laureate of the 2028 Nobel Peace Prize, either alone or shared with other individuals or organizations.

It resolves NO if the 2028 prize goes to anyone else, or if the committee declines to award a Peace Prize for 2028.

Resolution details:

• “2028 Nobel Peace Prize” means the prize the committee designates as the 2028 award, normally announced in October 2028 and presented December 10, 2028. If the announcement is delayed, the market waits for it.

• Only an official award from the Norwegian Nobel Committee counts. Medals transferred or dedicated by other laureates do not count; Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado gave Trump her 2025 medal in January 2026, which has no bearing here. Other “peace prizes” (FIFA’s, for example) do not count.

• Nobel statutes bar posthumous awards. If Trump dies before the announcement, the market resolves NO.

• The ordinary nomination deadline is January 31, 2028; committee members may add candidates at their first subsequent meeting.

Background: Trump has said repeatedly since returning to office in January 2025 that he deserves the prize, citing his involvement in eight international conflicts. He was passed over for both the 2025 and 2026 prizes. The war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and the US has fought a war with Iran during his term. His second term ends January 20, 2029, so the 2028 prize is the last one awarded while he is in office.