Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% in 2025? | Manifold

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% in 2025?

Plus

22

Ṁ1926

2026

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Any 7 day period in 2025 where it does not get to 90% or above (as displayed in the UI) counts.

Resolves N/A if loan rules change in 2025 (because loan rules influence the market in question a lot).

I plan to bet in this market since the resolution criteria are objective.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Eliezer Yudkowsky

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Same question, multiple levels

bought Ṁ10 YES

Upgraded to Plus

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below X% in 2025 (multiple levels)?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below X% in 2025 (multiple levels)?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules