Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below X% in 2025 (multiple levels)? | Manifold

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below X% in 2025 (multiple levels)?

Plus

15

Ṁ3696

2026

59%

90%

30%

88%

22%

86%

16%

84%

14%

82%

10%

80%

The market in question:

Any 7 day period in 2025 where it does not get to X% or above (as displayed in the UI) counts.

Resolves N/A if loan rules change in 2025 (because loan rules influence the market in question a lot).

I plan to bet in this market since the resolution criteria are objective.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Eliezer Yudkowsky

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