Will there be a major contamination event at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine by the end of 2022?

World•Ukraine-Russia war•Global Macro•Ukraine

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Resolves YES if the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe, enters an uncontrolled incident that results in widespread contamination of the area with radiative material by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

Aug 19, 2:50pm:

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

This market should proooobably be lower than the Metaculus ones:

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Put is much more likely to sabotage this nuclear power station than use a nuclear weapon. MUCH more likely. He already controls it. He just needs to switch the power off and wait.

predicted NO

The most likely scenario in which a nuclear weapon is used is that Putin decides to use a battlefield tactical nuke or nukes. You can't substitute a nuclear power plant contamination for that.

predicted YES

@zzq The point would be to stop the Ukrainian offensive by creating a more pressing issue. Tactical nukes do not accomplish that, shutting off the power and letting this power plant blowup would. It wound allow him to retreat and salvage his army. Tactical nuke just triggers Article 5 and he is dead. He will survive in power melting down this place.

predicted NO

@BTE Why does tactical nuke trigger Article 5, but blowing up a nuclear power plant doesn't trigger it?

predicted YES

@Yev Obviously the power plant can be done to look like an accident or even Ukraine’s fault. He isn’t gonna set a bomb off, it will explode just like Fukushima if the external power that cools the reactors is shut off for too long. It has already been severed a few times and restored. This is the only way to get out and retain power in my opinion. Article 5 requires something that can’t be explained as an accident.