Will the US block the export of any additional semiconductor technology to China before the end of 2022?
15
600
resolved Sep 9
Resolved
YES

Last week the White House ordered Nvidia to suspend exports of certain GPUs to China. This market resolves YES if the US government orders any other companies to suspend exports of semiconductor technology to China before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

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predicted YES

@jack it says there is still $600 liquidity in this market. I forgot to withdraw before closing. Can I not get it back?

@BTE That just means that's how much was in the pool at close. You should already have gotten it back.

*That is, at resolution time whatever shares were in the liquidity pool were paid out to you, just like any other shares. They would have been worth much less than M$600 because the market bought more yes, leaving the liquidity pool with fewer yes and more no.

predicted YES

Here is a story from Voice of America. Explicit purpose of this new policy is to keep US semiconductor technology from being manufactured in China and maintain tight export controls on the most valuable US semiconductor tech.

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-moves-to-keep-advanced-semiconductor-technology-out-of-china-/6736040.html

predicted NO

@BTE This doesn't seem to actually block any exports, though:

"Companies who receive CHIP funds can't build leading-edge or advanced technology facilities in China for a period of 10 years," she said. "Companies who receive the money can only expand their mature node factories in China to serve the Chinese market."

It's only a restriction on businesses who participate in a specific program, and even those can still sell to Chinese markets. It's just a restriction on how companies can invest in new factories. Was there any specific verbiage that caused you to resolve yes?

predicted YES

@wasabipesto It is because the federal funding is for building advanced manufacturing facilities for US Chip Companies in the US, but the catch is that to get the money companies have to commit to not manufacture any chips in China for 10 years. In other words it is an export ban on semiconductor manufacturing technology, the fabs and ultraviolet etching tech that China is at least 10 years away from developing domestically. I think this is actually a MORE powerful ban on significantly more valuable technology than the recent ban on Nvidia and AMD from selling certain existing chips to China. This will lead some to shut down operations in China to be eligible for the Chips Act funds.

predicted YES

@wasabipesto This article captures it well. Basically Intel must now choose between the tens of billions in subsidies they spent years lobbying for or the new fabs/facilities they had planned to build in China. This is an example of the US taking a page from the Chinese playbook. This can't be challenged at the WTO. It is closer to a bribe than a regulation, but it is devastating for Intel and AMD's mainland joint ventures. https://www.pcgamer.com/the-us-puts-an-end-to-any-plans-intel-may-have-to-make-more-chips-in-china/