🏅 Top traders

@Joshua Stealing this to post it every time a market either REALLY fucking works or REALLY doesn't fucking work

And just like that, it was over.

TX GOP concerned about corruption, you say? Interesting theory, traders.

They just said a magical incantation

How many of the traders are in Texas? Might be helpful to get a boots on the ground assessment here.

@KevinLobLaw 👋🤠

@KevinLobLaw unless theyre a state senator, no one has any more idea of what will happen than what’s been posted in the news.

That said, having watched parts of the trial, I think the defense had very weak arguments.

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk case. I do think he will ultimately be convicted, but I also feel like 88% is too high.

@AaronBreckenridge I'm interpreting this question as being a proxy for the courage of GOP to police their own, and hence piling on No.

About 27% of folks in my other market agree with you.

https://manifold.markets/AaronBreckenridge/how-many-texas-state-senators-will?r=QWFyb25CcmVja2VucmlkZ2U

How many Texas state senators will vote to convict Ken Paxton?

Ken Paxton's trial in the Texas senate begins on September 5, 2023. Each side will have 24 hours to present their case. There are 31 senators (12 Democrats). 2/3 of the senate (nominally 21 senators) must vote to convict to remove him from office. Angela Paxton cannot vote in the trial, but her presence counts towards the total. My plan is to close the market once voting begins and resolve once the vote totals are known. I will not participate in this market. If the trial is dismissed (which only takes a majority vote), this will resolve N/A.

@AaronBreckenridge Better odds here for my view. Weird.

@FrederickNorris Yes, same here. If deliberations go to tomorrow, I think we’ll see some movement here downwards.

@AaronBreckenridge They may just want a free breakfast

@KevinLobLaw Don’t you know there’s “no such thing as a free breakfast” 😉 and “there are no coincidences in Austin” 🙄