BTE avatar
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump attempts to avoid charged by pulling a 'Snowden' and refuses to return from abroad. Not necessary for him to formally seek asylum, but if he does that resolves YES. Resolves NO if Trump is in the US when charges are filed and thus unable to flee the country.

Aug 31, 5:12pm: Will Donald Trump leave the country before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered? → Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?

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MattP avatar

How does it resolve if he is not charged?

BTE avatar

@MattP Resolves NO if all known current criminal investigations announce no charges will be filed, which consists of three I believe - the federal Jan 6th grand jury, the National Archives grand jury and the Georgia special grand jury.

MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ75 of NO

Copy. I'll bet no then because I don't think he's going to be indicted.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 44%

@MattP Well, and also because he's not going to do this if he is.

BTE avatar

@MattP I honestly can't understand why so many people think he is still above the law when he isn't even denying that he committed the crime anymore. He knows he can't get a friendly jury in DC so he is totally fucked. He needs extrajudicial means to get out of this one and I bet he truly believes he is being persecuted so what is to stop him from just decamping to France? I mean, he did keep dirt on the French president for some reason I imagine, but idk...

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 15%

@BTE We'll see.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 14%

@BTE I imagine France would extradite him, he's not facing the death penalty.