Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Law & Order MAGA-land

Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?

3%

chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump attempts to avoid charged by pulling a 'Snowden' and refuses to return from abroad. Not necessary for him to formally seek asylum, but if he does that resolves YES. Resolves NO if Trump is in the US when charges are filed and thus unable to flee the country.

Aug 31, 5:12pm: ~~Will Donald Trump leave the country before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered?~~ → Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?

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How does it resolve if he is not charged?

@MattP Resolves NO if all known current criminal investigations announce no charges will be filed, which consists of three I believe - the federal Jan 6th grand jury, the National Archives grand jury and the Georgia special grand jury.

bought Ṁ75 of NO

Copy. I'll bet no then because I don't think he's going to be indicted.

is predicting NO at 44%

@MattP Well, and also because he's not going to do this if he is.

@MattP I honestly can't understand why so many people think he is still above the law when he isn't even denying that he committed the crime anymore. He knows he can't get a friendly jury in DC so he is totally fucked. He needs extrajudicial means to get out of this one and I bet he truly believes he is being persecuted so what is to stop him from just decamping to France? I mean, he did keep dirt on the French president for some reason I imagine, but idk...

is predicting NO at 15%

@BTE We'll see.

is predicting NO at 14%

@BTE I imagine France would extradite him, he's not facing the death penalty.

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 3%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 4%

sold Ṁ16 NO at 6%

sold Ṁ23 NO at 6%

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3%

filled limit order Ṁ71/Ṁ150 NO at 6%

Annalise Norling

bought Ṁ10 YES from 6% to 7%

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 7% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 7% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 7% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 7% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 7% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ134 NO from 4% to 6%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 4%

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 85% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ108 NO at 55% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ40 NO at 35% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ72 NO at 45% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ80 NO at 75% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 80% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 4% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 6%

created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 1.0%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ357 NO at 7%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 4% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ79 YES from 9% to 1.3%

bought Ṁ123 NO from 20% to 9%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 20%

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ9 NO at 42% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)