If Donald Trump is charged with a federal crime, will he make a deal?

1kṀ12k

2026

chance

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Resolves YES if Donald Trump is charged with a FEDERAL crime and strikes a plea deal with prosecutors to avoid going to trial. Resolves NO if he is charged and he fights the case all the way until a verdict is read.

Aug 22, 4:47pm:

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Should this resolve no?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@wilsonkime there's still time for Trump to resign, hand the presidency over to Vance, and get charged, prosecuted, and offered a plea deal

https://manifold.markets/Snarflak/will-trump-flee-to-russia?r=U25hcmZsYWs

The "If Donald Trump is charged with a federal crime" part is settled now, right?

@Snarflak Yes

What means

the man wrote the book on deals!

Market question is a bit misleading again, as this isn't a conditional per market description.

predictedNO

@MartinRandall Your correct. My bad. I am trying to be very precise and this time it was too much! Thanks!

predictedYES

@BTE So it's a conditional for sure - N/A if he is not charged, YES/NO if he is (depending on following events)?

predictedNO

@MattP Well the charges may come simultaneously to the deal. By that I mean charges may be negotiated as part of the the deal, in which case I it would be YES. Make sense?