MANIFOLD
If Donald Trump is charged with a federal crime, will he make a deal?
47
Ṁ1kṀ12k
Jan 1
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is charged with a FEDERAL crime and strikes a plea deal with prosecutors to avoid going to trial. Resolves NO if he is charged and he fights the case all the way until a verdict is read.

Aug 22, 4:47pm:

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@BTE Trump was charged and did not strike a plea deal. Are you waiting to see if he is at some point in the future charged with another crime? Under what circumstances would you resolve it?

Should this resolve no?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@wilsonkime there's still time for Trump to resign, hand the presidency over to Vance, and get charged, prosecuted, and offered a plea deal

The "If Donald Trump is charged with a federal crime" part is settled now, right?

What means

the man wrote the book on deals!

Market question is a bit misleading again, as this isn't a conditional per market description.

predictedNO

@MartinRandall Your correct. My bad. I am trying to be very precise and this time it was too much! Thanks!

predictedYES

@BTE So it's a conditional for sure - N/A if he is not charged, YES/NO if he is (depending on following events)?

predictedNO

@MattP Well the charges may come simultaneously to the deal. By that I mean charges may be negotiated as part of the the deal, in which case I it would be YES. Make sense?

predictedYES

@BTE Sure - but if there are no charges at all, does it resolve N/A or NO?

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