Will a NATO country invoke Article 5 by the end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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Resolves YES if Article 5 is invoked by any NATO member by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

Sep 28, 8:58am: Article 5 has been triggered only once in NATO history, by the US on 9/11.

Sep 28, 10:28am:

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https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nato-member-country-invoke-article-4-by-eoy

predictedYES

@kolotom99 That question is about Article 4. This one is about Article 5.

What happens if they declare article 5? Do the NATO has to go to war against Russia?

predictedYES

@MP Yep.

predictedYES

@MP Only been used once before, on 9/11.

predictedYES

@MP It is effectively a declaration of war on whomever was responsible for the initial attack. In this scenario it could be US air strikes on Russian targets in Ukraine or possibly a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I don’t think we will start hitting targets inside Russia though. Not yet at least.

It’s entirely up to the Pols now. If they declare Article 5 it can’t be vetoed by anyone.

predictedYES

Did something happen today?

@BTE Russian missiles accidentally it polish city killing two people

@MathiasBonde Oh shit.

How is it different from this?

@Yev It’s not. My bad, I didn’t bother searching before making this market.

@ArbitrageBot

@BTE I'm confused by the term "violated". Invoking article 5 means coming to the defense of another NATO member. Therefore, I'd have interpreted "violated" as someone invoking article 5 and then another NATO member refusing to recognize or act on it.