Will a NATO country invoke Article 5 by the end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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Resolves YES if Article 5 is invoked by any NATO member by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

Sep 28, 8:58am: Article 5 has been triggered only once in NATO history, by the US on 9/11.

Sep 28, 10:28am:

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15 Comments

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261 Trades

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nato-member-country-invoke-article-4-by-eoy

predicted YES

@kolotom99 That question is about Article 4. This one is about Article 5.

bought Ṁ70 of YES

What happens if they declare article 5? Do the NATO has to go to war against Russia?

predicted YES

@MP Yep.

predicted YES

@MP Only been used once before, on 9/11.

predicted YES

@MP It is effectively a declaration of war on whomever was responsible for the initial attack. In this scenario it could be US air strikes on Russian targets in Ukraine or possibly a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I don’t think we will start hitting targets inside Russia though. Not yet at least.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

It’s entirely up to the Pols now. If they declare Article 5 it can’t be vetoed by anyone.

predicted YES

Did something happen today?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@BTE Russian missiles accidentally it polish city killing two people

sold Ṁ68 of YES

@MathiasBonde Oh shit.

How is it different from this?

@Yev It’s not. My bad, I didn’t bother searching before making this market.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@ArbitrageBot

@BTE I'm confused by the term "violated". Invoking article 5 means coming to the defense of another NATO member. Therefore, I'd have interpreted "violated" as someone invoking article 5 and then another NATO member refusing to recognize or act on it.