i hate when markets are ridiculously far from my credence but nobody ever bets in them. so i decided to knock this one down to see if i'll get any action at 30%

@SemioticRivalry Why is your credence so low? It seems pretty likely that a justice retires or dies in the next five years, and it’s 50/50 on whether a Democrat wins the 2024 election. (If you think that’s too high, you’ll get much better action there.)

I suppose the Senate will probably go red in this election as well, but they have decent odds of retaking it in 2026, and it seems somewhat hard to believe that even a Republican Senate would hold up a Justice appointment for four years. They were getting a lot of pressure when it was just a couple months before the election back in 2016, and they have 6-3 control so losing one Justice wouldn’t be a complete loss.

@Gabrielle my credence for dem senate is very low, my credence for trump getting a justice in his first two years is very high, and my credence for the next senate gop leader to be totally relaxed blocking a justice indefinitely is very high

If no justice is appointed before 2025 does this close as NA or do you have a rolling close date?

@AdamTreat Rolling close date

What if it's a bipartisan Biden appointee to get past a future GOP senate?

@Jamandabop I'll create a market for this if you would like to bet on it happening, I would be on NO.

@SemioticRivalry wait nvm I misread the prompt. The answer to this would be "yes" then.

A separate market on this would probably make sense to open up after the 2024 election if Biden has to deal with an R senate tho.