Will any state pass a ban on same-sex marriage before the end of 2023?
27
closes Dec 31
5%
chance
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Amount
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Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ187 +1777.8%
New probability
6% +0.8%
This market is merely conditional on such a ban passing and does not require enforcement, and is not contingent on being blocked by a court or any appeal to or decision by the Supreme Court.
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Looks like some Republicans in Iowa are trying via an amendment to the state constitution, with added transphobia thrown in for good measure. Worth noting that the bill as written would allow same-gender relationships between trans people, specifically because of the transphobic intent. Hooray for loopholes, I guess!
No idea if it will pass - the site says it was referred to the Judiciary committee three months ago, with no further updates - but it does show that at least some Republicans are itching to try.
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