Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
14
1kṀ3602029
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2020, according to the CDC, 12.5% of the US population smoked cigarettes.
Will at least 5.0% of the U.S. population smoke cigarettes in 2030, as reported by the CDC, in the BRFSS or other data?
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/adult_data/cig_smoking/index.htm
Resolves YES if 5.0% (rounded to 1 d.p., so >=4.950000%) or more smoke cigarettes, or NO otherwise, using BRFSS data if it is available, or if not, the figure used most prominently by the CDC.
Jan 27, 12:15am: Will at least 5% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030? → Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will at least 8.0% of the U.S. population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
36% chance
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?
12% chance
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2035?
46% chance
Will 10% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?
84% chance
Will at least 50.0% of US adults consume alcohol in an average month in 2030?
65% chance
Will fewer than 5% of adult New Zealanders be smokers by the end of 2025
10% chance
Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?
49% chance
Will there be a federal ban on menthol cigarettes in the United States by the end of 2030?
5% chance
Will at least 75% of households in the United States own a car in 2035?
83% chance
Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?
70% chance