Will there be a federal ban on menthol cigarettes in the United States by the end of 2030?
Mini
9
แน€223
2031
29%
chance

The resolution of this market will be based on official announcements, publications, and regulatory changes from credible sources such as:

  1. U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA): The primary source for official regulatory changes regarding tobacco products.

  2. Federal Register: Official journal of the federal government of the United States that contains government agency rules, proposed rules, and public notices.

  3. Credible News Outlets: Reputable news organizations reporting on the finalization and enforcement of the ban.

Criteria for a "Yes" Resolution: The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, an official federal ban on menthol cigarettes is enacted and in effect in the United States. This includes:

  1. Legislation Passed: A law passed by Congress and signed by the President banning menthol cigarettes.

  2. FDA Regulation: Finalization and implementation of FDA regulations that prohibit the manufacture, distribution, and sale of menthol cigarettes.

Criteria for a "No" Resolution: The market will resolve to "No" if, by December 31, 2030, no such federal ban is enacted and in effect. This includes scenarios where:

  1. No Legislation or Regulation: No federal law or regulation banning menthol cigarettes has been passed or implemented.

  2. Incomplete Processes: Proposed bans or regulations are still under consideration, in public comment stages, or otherwise not yet in effect.

Important Notes:

  • The ban must be federal, not state or local.

  • The ban must explicitly include menthol cigarettes; bans on other/general flavored tobacco products alone do not count.

  • The market will not resolve based on partial, proposed, or incomplete regulatory actions.

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