Will there be a federal ban on menthol cigarettes in the United States by the end of 2030?

The resolution of this market will be based on official announcements, publications, and regulatory changes from credible sources such as:

  1. U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA): The primary source for official regulatory changes regarding tobacco products.

  2. Federal Register: Official journal of the federal government of the United States that contains government agency rules, proposed rules, and public notices.

  3. Credible News Outlets: Reputable news organizations reporting on the finalization and enforcement of the ban.

Criteria for a "Yes" Resolution: The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, an official federal ban on menthol cigarettes is enacted and in effect in the United States. This includes:

  1. Legislation Passed: A law passed by Congress and signed by the President banning menthol cigarettes.

  2. FDA Regulation: Finalization and implementation of FDA regulations that prohibit the manufacture, distribution, and sale of menthol cigarettes.

Criteria for a "No" Resolution: The market will resolve to "No" if, by December 31, 2030, no such federal ban is enacted and in effect. This includes scenarios where:

  1. No Legislation or Regulation: No federal law or regulation banning menthol cigarettes has been passed or implemented.

  2. Incomplete Processes: Proposed bans or regulations are still under consideration, in public comment stages, or otherwise not yet in effect.

Important Notes:

  • The ban must be federal, not state or local.

  • The ban must explicitly include menthol cigarettes; bans on other/general flavored tobacco products alone do not count.

  • The market will not resolve based on partial, proposed, or incomplete regulatory actions.

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