Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?
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2030
49%
chance

This 2004 study shows that the life expectancy gap between smokers and non-smokers has risen in recent decades:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC437139/

The health of the general population has increased faster than that of smokers.

However this increase in health has slowed in recent years. At the same time there are advances in lung cancer treatment and other diseases related to smoking.

This resolves YES if there is conclusive evidence that the gap in life expectancy is decreasing again.

If not it auto resolves no.

This is for developed countries, and should exclude factors such as e.g. firearm or drug deaths that only happen in the US in such high numbers.

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Do vapers count as smokers or non-smokers or neither?

@asmith It should be comparable to earlier results, and vaping was not as common. The evidence should reflect that. I think the likeliest would be „neither“. Studies of smoking often include the category „former smoker“ which vapers might fall into.

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