Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?
21
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2030
32%
chance

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the proportion of adults aged 18 or older who have used marijuana in the last 30 days.

Will the NSDUH figure for 2030, when released, be above 20.0%?

The market resolves YES if the NSDUH percentage of adults aged 18 or older who have used marijuana in the last 30 days for 2030 is more than 20.0%, and resolves NO otherwise.

Usage stats:

2018: 10.5%

2019: 11.9%

2020: 12.4%

2021: 13.7%

See the NSDUH Detailed Tables for each corresponding year at https://www.samhsa.gov/data/all-reports

The data for each year may not be directly comparable as the NSDUH does change their survey methodology from year to year.

I'll endeavor to close the market after the figure has been posted on the NSDUH website.

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whoops, smaller market than I realized, idk it could happen. my guess is it's pretty close to the stable level already - it's not a hard to get drug and doesn't get that much more popular when legalized, probably won't be legalized for large scale sale everywhere by then unless reaching hard ASI breaks my models more than I currently expect. pretty sure safe hard ASI would only reduce weed use due to replacing it with better, safer drugs, though

predicts YES

@L reasonable. I guess the major factors that will drive increased use is that it's still not legal for recreational use in many states; still isn't legal for any use in Texas, and still isn't legal at the federal level.

Also I think there is probably more potential to break down anti-cannabis cultural norms in more conservative communities and I think that will happen with legalization and normalization. Still, from 13.7% to 20% is a long way to go!

I doubt AGI is going to have a substantial impact on this market. Perhaps it would if the target was 2035 or 2040.

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