This market will resolve yes if a large, nationally representative survey in England finds that 10% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes by the end of 2030. This includes surveys released after this date, but the data covers 2030 or earlier. I will accept rounded figures to the nearest 0.1% (e.g. the true figure could be 10.04% and this market would still resolve yes).
The UK government has set a target for England to be 'smokefree' by 2030 - achieved when adult smoking prevalence is 5% or less.
The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics suggest that in 2021, 13% of adults in England smoked, down from 13.8% the year before and the lowest rate ever recorded.
However, a recent review (the 'Khan review') said that “without further action, England will miss the smokefree 2030 target by at least 7 years”, and made 15 recommendations to help the government achieve its smokefree ambitions.
Since then, the UK government has announced a scheme to provide 1 million smokers with free e-cigarette starter packs to help them quit (known as 'swap to stop'), as well as financial incentives to encourage pregnant women to stop smoking. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-urged-to-swap-cigarettes-for-vapes-in-world-first-scheme
1,000ONS's 6 October 2026 release reports that 9.5% of adults aged 18+ in England smoked cigarettes in 2025 (section 3). This appears to meet the 10%-or-less condition, which allows data for 2030 or earlier.
Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics
The estimate comes from the large, population-weighted Annual Population Survey, the same series used for the ONS baseline cited here. Quality caveat: ONS flags response and weighting limitations; these are official statistics, without current accreditation. The survey's regular-smoking screening can also miss some occasional smokers.
Could you review for YES resolution? I hold no position here.
