Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?
10
95
2029
68%
chance

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the proportion of people who have engaged in binge alcohol use in the past month.

Binge use of alcohol was defined since 2015 for females as drinking four or more drinks on the same occasion (i.e., at the same time or within a couple of hours of each other) and for males as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least 1 day in the past 30 days. Respondents were asked about the number of days they had five or more drinks (for males) or four or more drinks (for females) on the same occasion if they reported last using any alcohol in the past 30 days based on the following question: "How long has it been since you last drank an alcoholic beverage?"

Binge alcohol use rates over past month for some recent years are as follows:

2018: 26.6% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables, Table 2.35B)

2019: 26.0% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables, Table 2.35B)

2021: 23.6% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2021-nsduh-detailed-tables, Table 2.45B)

1 in 6 US adults equates to a percentage of 16.67%.

What proportion will engage in binge alcohol use in an average month in 2030, as reported by the NSDUH for that year?

This question resolves NO if the percentage reported by the NSDUH is 16.6% or below, and YES if the percentage reported is 16.7% or more. If the NSDUH reports a proportion in between those amounts, that proportion will be compared to the fraction 1/6.

Jan 27, 5:17pm: Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) consume alcohol in an average month in 2030? →Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

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predicts YES

The success criteria fine print had the two sides swapped. My apologies. I have now aligned the fine print with the title.

The title is very misleading IMO if this is only about binge drinking

@Radicalia yes thank you and sorry for that. just a mistake in wording. I have already created a question to refer to alcohol use in particular, here: https://manifold.markets/B/will-at-least-50-of-us-adults-consu

@B Assumed it was a good-faith mistake :-)