Resolves positively if there is a substantial pan-European armed service created before 2040. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.
See the same market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-europeaneu-army-be-created-b
To resolve positively,
the army would be under the command of a body with representation from a set of EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) with at least, as of 2023, 200 million in population.
the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (this excludes a NATO army since NATO has US representation)
the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.
Members serving under this military command may be permanently assigned, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.
The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval
There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel under the pan-European military command at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000, Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.