Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?
23
79
1k
2029
30%
chance

Resolves positively if there is a pan-European military force created before 2030. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.

See the same market for 2040: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-european-or-eu-army-be-creat

To resolve positively,

  • the army would be under the command of a body with representation from current EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) totalling more than 200 million people in population.

  • the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (as NATO does)

  • the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.

  • Members of this armed service may be permanently assigned to the pan-European army, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.

  • The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval

  • There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000 Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.

Apr 14, 3:56pm: Will a European/EU army be created before 2030? → Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?

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