The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the proportion of people who have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms.

Will the NSDUH figure for 2030, when released, be at least 15.0%?

The market resolves YES if the NSDUH percentage of US adults (18+) in 2030 who have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms, as reported by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for that year, is at least 15.0%.

If the NSDUH does not report figures, closest available government source will be used.

Usage stats:

2019: 10.0%

2020: 10.3%

2021: 11%

See the NSDUH Detailed Tables for each corresponding year at https://www.samhsa.gov/data/all-reports

The data for each year may not be directly comparable as the NSDUH does change their survey methodology from year to year.

The percentage figure reported by NSDUH, to one decimal point (as presented above) will be used to determine the outcome.

In some locations, usage is trending towards being legal. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/health/psychedelic-drugs-mushrooms-oregon.htm

NSDUH's data on illicit drug usage is more detailed than legal drug usage. If there is legal usage of psilocybin/magic mushrooms in 2030 that NSDUH doesn't cover, I will do my best to use respected sources such as ClinCalc.com to resolve this market.