Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2026 if I think that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months with >90% probability.

Beer drinker doesn't take MDMA or drink alcohol outside the 8 days and MDMA taker doesn't drink alcohol.

I will not trade in this market.

Edit: If I think that taking MDMA isn't relatively dangerous with high confidence given that the user is using some known trick like taking particular known supplements, this market will resolve YES.