Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA?
21
183
360
2030
91%
chance

This market resolves to 'YES' if the FDA announces approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD by January 1st, 2030. If approval is announced prior to market closing, then the market will resolve early.

EDIT: If neither of these conditions are met, then the market will resolve to 'NO'

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02886-x

The psychedelic drug MDMA, also known as ecstasy or molly, has passed another key hurdle on its way to regulatory approval as a treatment for mental illness. A second large clinical trial has found that the drug — in combination with psychotherapy — is effective at treating post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The results allow the trial’s sponsor to now seek approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for MDMA’s use as a PTSD treatment for the general public, which might come as soon as next year.

predicts YES

Likely, this will happen way before 2030. I made a market for mid 2024:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

"MAPS PBC expects to submit the new drug application to the FDA in the third quarter of 2023" https://mapspublicbenefit.com/press-releases/maps-pbc-announces-positive-results-from-confirmatory-phase-3-mapp2-trial/

bought Ṁ10 of YES

In July 2022, a letter from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services was made public describing the Food and Drug Administration’s “anticipated approval…within approximately 24 months” of MDMA as a legally prescribed adjuct to psychotherapy for PTSD.