Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Keir Starmer is officially elected by the Assembly of States Parties as the next permanent (non-interim) Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

This market will resolve to NO if any other individual is elected to the permanent position, or if the selection process concludes without Starmer being appointed.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the International Criminal Court or the Assembly of States Parties.

Background

On July 24, 2026, the Assembly of States Parties voted to remove Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan from office following a disciplinary process regarding allegations of sexual misconduct. This marks the first time a sitting chief prosecutor has been ouster in the court's history.

The vacancy has triggered the process to elect a new permanent prosecutor. Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer has a background as a human rights defense barrister and former Director of Public Prosecutions for England and Wales, he has recently been ousted as the serving as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and is arguably a staunch Atlanticist as well as a friend of Israel, which has long sought to sideline Khan.

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