Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
20
แน€1.7k
2026
75%
The Winds of Winter
42%
Doors of Stone

Resolved upon release. In the event the book's name is changed, the next novel-length sequel in either series will win. (For example, if Rothfuss releases a surprise KC prequel that is not functionally the third book in his projected trilogy, that would not resolve YES--but if he just renames the third book "I hate writing here's the book give me my money and go away," that would resolve YES.)

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If neither happens and the authors die or something, does this stay open until the heat death of the universe, or something else?

@Bayesian Yes. This will the tombstone of our culture in that event, the sole artifact of our entire history as a species.

@Hyperlincoln The question does not exclude the option of the IP being sold off and another author finishing the series. Given the hype for these, there is a decent chance someone will try to do that if the original author dies. (If it wasn't so long term, I would make a market on it.)

@UnconditionalProbability I think that's pretty likely, especially for GRRM. Doesn't affect this market, though, doesn't matter who the author is as long as it's the next book in the series.

Dammit, I forgot to change the default settings on the question. To be clear, only one of these options will win.