Will Manifold be valued at >=$33M at any point in the next year?

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resolved Jun 14

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We last raised at a $22M post-money valuation; so a $33M valuation would represent a ~50% increase.

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21 Comments

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predicted YES

Resolving to NO; I'm pretty sure my intention when asking this question was "the year between market open and market close", not "end of 2023". Our highest (and most recent) valuation was the bridge round we raised in Dec 2022 at $25m post-money

predicted YES

@Austin That may have been your intention, but the more natural reading of "in the next year" is "in 2023". I would expect a phrasing like "within a year from now" or "in the next 12 months" to refer to a year-long period starting from a certain day. In retrospect, In retrospect I should have wondered why you didn't just ask "in 2023", so I agree the phrasing was ambiguous.

I kinda feel cheated for believing in Manifold. I suggest resolving N/A.

predicted NO

@Primer fwiw, I wouldn’t construe a NO position as “not believing in Manifold” so much as “believing a little less hard / more realistically than the YESes”

predicted YES

@MattCWilson Yeah, this was supposed to sound half metaphoric, half conveying my feelings and half pathetic ;)

predicted NO

@Primer All good. Believe me I’d be thrilled to have lost the mana on this one. Cheers mate 😉

predicted YES

Seems kinda overconfident?

sold Ṁ96 of NO

What's the news here? Is this just about @JamesGrugett selling some shares a month ago?

predicted NO

Here's a derivative market on Manifold valuation

predicted NO

Will Manifold management team acknowledge that they used a market on Manifold valuation and funding prospects to raise money? (Here's a good market)

/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-continuing

/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-removing-th

bought Ṁ100 of NO

When was the 22m round?

Originally bet against this but then had second thoughts, user numbers seem to have gone way up over the last year which might be enough to overcome market conditions. So not sure now.

Liquidity preferences always do the trick for whatever price they want

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

This was hovering at 50%-70% the last couple months. Here's M$30k in NO limit orders if you think this is at all likely to happen... and let me know if you want more.

Common stock valuation, minimum investment $500k, no silly tricks like writing employees options with poor terms, etc.

[buys a bunch of YES] I'd like to purchase one share of Manifold at a valutation of $34M, please

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Expecting a lower price from Alameda shares being offloaded.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Need limit orders...

Yeah this is a good market to probe my thoughts on equity. I am going to bet yes. To be maximally relevant to the SirSalty market, the comparison might be odds of outperforming a SirSalty-managed fund? I don't know if SirSalty manages any investments but it could be fun to bet on Manifold vs the Nimblefoot fund I co manage with Sapphire.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Hedging. I'd guess true odds are 50/50.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Outside view says this is way lower.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

Haha that's an interesting question - what is outside view here? Number of seed-stage startups that raise at a 50% higher valuation in 1 year? Or a 33M valuation in 1 year? Also what's the reference class (all startups? SV startups? YC startups?)