If there is another temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, will Netanyahu’s coalition collapse?
14
862
2025
42%
chance

Negotiations on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire have been ongoing for weeks. The current proposal is a temporary ceasefire where some Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners are exchanged. If no agreement broadly resembling this plan is implemented by the end of 2024 or Netanyahu’s coalition collapses before a ceasefire for a different reason, this market will resolve to N/A.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to YES if Netanyahu loses his majority in the Knesset due to the ceasefire agreement (according to statements from those leaving the coalition) and NO otherwise.

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@traders I updated the description to clarify one ambiguous scenario: if there is a ceasefire and Netanyahu's coalition collapses afterward for unrelated reasons, this will resolve NO, not N/A.

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